Tariffs and the Preowned Rolex Market

The recently implemented tariffs on Swiss imports into the U.S. are going to be of great interest to anyone currently in the market for a luxury watch. As such, we’ve published a number of articles on the subject, covering tariffs in general as well as what effect they will likely have on both the new and preowned sectors.

For this post, we’re going to be more specific and look at the repercussions for one brand in particular; Rolex. 

An Industry in Shock

It has already been a tumultuous year for Rolex, as indeed, it has for other Swiss manufactures. The Trump administration announced a first wave of tariffs during Watches & Wonders Geneva, coming in at 10%. That in itself was enough to dampen the party, and led to a massive 160% spike in sales in April as customers raced to get hold of their dream watch before the inevitable price rises came into effect. 

Then, with rumors of further hikes surfacing later in the year, July saw the U.S. effectively bulk buying from Switzerland in order to stockpile watches before another increase, with imports going up an incredible 149%. 

Sure enough, a huge 39% tariff was announced soon after and the industry is still reeling from the shock. As yet, there has been little evidence of sticker prices rising for new Swiss watches, as dealers continue to work through their earlier accumulated inventory. But nobody is in any doubt that once they are gone and fresh stock has to be brought in, now subject to that massive import duty, things are going to get a whole lot more expensive. 

How much more for new Rolex watches? Industry sources are expecting Authorized Dealers, already working with modest margins, are going to be forced to pass on a healthy percentage of the increase, meaning new models will likely increase in price somewhere between 10-20%.

The Preowned Knock-on Effect

So, between a major price increase and most likely an even more limited amount of stock than usual, it doesn’t take much to imagine the preowned market is about to go stratospheric.

But will it in Rolex’s case? As we said in one of our previous articles on the subject, there are levels to the luxury watch business, i.e. some brands are going to be more affected than others. And the ones most at risk are probably going to be the more mid-tier divisions. The reason for that is simple. 

Those buying at the very top end of the watchmaking spectrum, the haute horlogerie maisons of Patek, AP and Vacheron, for instance, tend to be ‘money no object’ sort of people. Or, in this case, tariff no object. If you have the sort of buying power where you can happily drop $100k or so on a watch, chances are an extra $30k on top won’t even register. 

It’s only when you come down to what might be speciously described as the ‘real world’ where that increase in prices becomes a significant issue. The mid-tier likes of Oris or Longines or some of the more accessible TAGs, models which exist in, say, the $1,000 to $5,000 range, are going to be hit hard. If you had your heart set on something like an Oris Aquis Date Caliber 400, for example, that $4,300 watch is suddenly going to cost you about $5,600. And unlike for the Patek-buying crew, that extra $1,300 is a big deal.

It’s the same with the next step up. Entry level luxury brands are going to suffer too; Omega, Tudor, IWC et al. That beautiful Breitling Navitimer which was $5,900 yesterday is now more than $7,500 and my AD is getting a call to cancel my order. 

But where is Rolex in all this? Certainly not a mid-tier brand by any stretch, they are also above entry level luxury. They are not, however, haute horlogerie but sit somewhere in-between the two; a full-blooded luxury brand, like a Porsche sandwiched between an Audi and a Bentley.  

Price Over Availability

Although the breadth of their catalog means they attract customers from all walks of life, studies have shown average Rolex buyers tend to be business professionals, entrepreneurs, doctors, lawyers, finance bros and the like—generally not folk who are underpaid or struggling for cash. 

That would put them, while not quite in the Patek class, at least fairly unbothered by the probable coming price increases. And that assumption is backed up by the entire framework of the preowned market. 

It was a Rolex which kicked off the modern era of watch collecting. When the brand couldn’t make the second generation Daytona fast enough, desperate buyers either went for the first generation models or else they went directly to those lucky enough to get their hands on a second gen at retail who then turned around, slapped on a huge premium and sold them on preowned—giving birth to an entire industry at the same time.

It has been a similar story ever since. For decades now people have been happy and willing to pay far more for preowned Rolexes than Rolex charges for a new one just to avoid sitting on years-long waiting lists. Price has never really been the issue; the problem has always been availability. And it’s probably about to get worse.

There’s only a finite number of preowned Rolexes already in the States, meaning more will have to be brought in from abroad. Preowned watches imported into the country are going to be hit with the same 39% tariff as the new ones. Dealers are therefore bracing themselves for a certain amount of supply chain stress, and especially the smaller platforms lacking the sort of cash flow of the larger players. 

The upshot is going to be a lack of watches available to buy and a very definite spike in prices on the preowned market. 

The Good News

The tariffs came into effect on the 7^th August. At time of writing (09/01/25) we have yet to really see any of these increases; the reason being there is still enough new stock available to be sold and shortages have not yet occurred.

Yet, if you were hoping to buy a Rolex this year, the advice has to be to do it sooner rather than later. Those reserves won’t last forever. In fact, they might not last till Christmas and once they’re gone, the whole landscape is liable to change.

But what if you already have a Rolex or two in your watch box? Well, your collection just became much more valuable. Experts in this sort of supply and demand dynamics predict that in the next six months, average preowned Rolex prices could rise by up to 35%. If you’re in a selling mood and want to free up some cash, it’s time to dig out the box and papers and get your models listed. 

Now, all this is predicated on one thing—the tariffs staying in place. Far be it from me to get into the politics of the thing, but the current administration has not been averse to proposing punitive tariffs only to have second thoughts and roll them back again, sometimes on the same day. The Swiss tariff may be different in that it has actually gone into action already, but seeing them dismantled at some point in the future for something less punishing may not be the bigliest surprise of all time.

We’ll keep you up to date.