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Top 5 Rolex Models Under $15,000 Worth Investing in Now
Let’s get this out right up front: watches are meant to be worn and enjoyed. That some of them occasionally perform well as appreciating assets is, at best, a perk of ownership and not the principal reason for purchase.
Ok, that’s the sanctimonious proselytizing out of the way, let’s look at this more realistically: There’s no reason you can’t have the best of both worlds!
There’s absolutely nothing wrong with buying a watch because you both love it and have a strong suspicion it will be worth at least as much as you paid for it 5, 10, 15-years down the line.
Doing the whole collecting thing in that way means it becomes a very sustainable hobby indeed, because you’re not really parting with any money, just tying it up for a while. If you’re lucky, the whole gig pays for itself and can even earn you dividends in the future.
The trick is picking the right watch. Fortunately, the choice gets narrowed right down for you straight away because only a tiny handful of brands consistently offer good investment potential. And of them all, Rolex has to be the best all-rounder.
What Makes a Good Investment Watch?
If we knew exactly which watches were going to be the best investments in the future, we’d all be rich.
Just as with any form of investing there is a deal of guesswork, educated and otherwise, that goes into deciding which models might increase or at least hold their value.
That being said, there are a number of factors which have historically caused watches to perform well financially; the first, ironically enough, being history.
A model with a long and proven track record is likely to remain in demand. Part and parcel of that lies in its design. Watches with an instantly recognizable look (with Rolex we can think of the Daytona, the Submariner, the Pepsi GMT-Master, etc.) eventually become embedded in the consciousness; ‘timeless’ rather than ‘of its decade’. These are the ones which stay desirable across generations.
But it can also be because of a particular story. A model linked with an innovation or even a pop culture phenomenon will likely always command premiums. Think the Bond Subs or the original Double Red Sea-Dwellers.
Another massive influence is rarity. While Rolex has never really gone in for limited editions, they are fond of the surprise discontinuation, leaving certain pieces with relatively few in circulation. This happened quite a lot in the ‘80s, around the time the brand was updating their Cal. 30XX movements with the Cal. 31XX. The references running the former are now considered transitional, and were only in production fairly briefly.
And it doesn’t even have to be the whole watch. Dial colors and styles which are around for just a handful of years become intrinsically more sought after due to their scarcity.
Of course, not all watches are created equal. You can have two examples of the same reference and they might be light years apart in terms of value. Condition and originality are everything. A watch that is in pristine condition, unpolished (or has not been over polished) and is period and reference series correct could be worth an extra zero on the end of one with flayed lugs, the wrong bezel or aftermarket diamonds. Coupled with that, collectors love and will pay a premium for a full set; box, papers, hang tags, maybe even extra bracelet links.
And, finally, there’s timing. If you buy in when demand is soft and offload when the hype is in full force, you will be one happy horologist.
In short then, a strong investment watch is a rare, iconic model from a strong brand that is in excellent condition and with all its gubbins in place.
Easy.
The Best Under $15,000
It’s not difficult to secure yourself a good investment Rolex if money’s no object. You just tool over to your favorite platform and snap up a Paul Newman or a MilSub or a Jean-Claude, look after it for a few years then auction it off.
If, however, you’re on a budget, you have to be a bit more discerning. Below then, we look at five of the best Rolex investments under $15K.
The Rolex Explorer II ref. 16570
Older 5-Digit Rolex sports models offer some of the best investment potential within our $15K budget at the moment…especially since you can find them for under $10K
One of the more leftfield options is the ref. 16570 Explorer II. This is the reference which replaced the transitional ref. 16550, and so comes with the Cal. 3185 (the same movement found in the era’s GMT-Master II).
So, while the model itself might not be especially rare, there are some rare variations within it. One which is beginning to generate some attention is the Chicchi Di Mais dial. Named after the Italian for ‘corn kernels’, these Polar dial examples have lume plots which have started to change color to an orangey-yellow tone. Found in the E, X, N and S serial ranges from the early ‘90s, some say these are as scarce as the beloved cream dial ref. 16550 models but are about one third the price.
The Rolex Sea-Dweller 4000 ref. 16600
Hugely capable, highly wearable, beautifully versatile, this follow-up to the Triple Six ran from 1988 through to the Sea-Dweller’s brief retirement in 2008.
Another steel sports Rolex, and so very likely to at least hold its value, it is also a nice alternative to the all-pervading Submariner, and comes with the addition of a Helium Escape Valve; handy for those weeks when you’re living in an underwater habitat breathing mixed gases.
To get the most out of your budget, look out for earlier models with tritium lume and the start of a nice patina forming on the dial—both things which will shift and escalate over time and which future collectors will love.
The Rolex Milgauss ref. 116400GV
It’s kinda difficult to work out why this model hasn’t taken off yet. It’s a steel sports watch (well, it’s from the Professional Collection anyway), it was produced in relatively small numbers, it is now discontinued, it had a nifty little quirk, and it came with a never-to-be-seen-again innovation.
But then, the Milgauss was always a tough sell for Rolex, even going back to its debut references in the ‘50s.
That being said, there have been recent rumblings that the final technician’s watch is ramping up in the popularity stakes. So, if you were interested in this possible sleeper hit, with its lightning bolt seconds hand and its funky green tinted sapphire crystal, you can still find them easily for less than $15K….and some for under $10,000. How long that will last, though, is anyone’s guess.
The Rolex Air-King ref. 14000
Contrary to what many of the uninitiated might tell you, it is most definitely possible to find an outright bargain Rolex. And the Air-King ref. 14000 is certainly one.
Arguably the brand’s most under-the-radar model, there has been an Air-King reference in the portfolio almostcontinually since 1945.
Created initially to commemorate the heroics of British RAF pilots during the Second World War, the watch has always been one of those unassuming pieces; a sort of anti-Rolex for ‘one-watch’ people who just want a timepiece to last them a lifetime.
The ref. 14000 came out in 1989 and replaced the remarkably long-lived ref. 5500, which had been around since 1957. As such, it was the first Air-King to have a modern sapphire crystal but it still measured a decidedly vintage 34mm. Today, that also makes it a perfect unisex model that can be enjoyed by both men and women.
It also came with a wider choice of dials, with a particular favorite in a beautiful flat blue complete with Explorer 3/6/9 numerals, one to look out for.
But whichever variant you fancy, you’ll find it tough to spend more than $6K or $7K on one.
The Rolex Datejust ref. 16233
The legendary Datejust is Rolex’s most traded model. And of all the countless different iterations of the classic everyman watch, it is the humble ref. 16233 which dominates as the one which most frequently changes hands.
To many people, the 36mm piece, with its two-tone Rolesor makeup and eye-catching fluted bezel, is what a true Rolex looks like, so inseparable is the visual from the brand.
Incredibly, although there has rarely been a shortage in Datejust supply, either natural or manufactured, the value of the model has absolutely skyrocketed over the last 15-years.
You could have bought one without diamonds for around $2,500 in 2010. Fast forward to today and that same watch will come in at around $7,500, representing a 300% increase. And even that’s a drop from its 2022 peak of nearly $10K, equal to the best part of 400%.
Will it continue? Well, the Datejust remains the Crown’s top seller of all time. So, if there’s one certainty in watch collecting, it is you are unlikely to lose money on one.
Featured Photo: Mixed art by Oriol Mendivil for BKT Archive.
